تاثیرات تغییر اقلیم بر پتانسیل استحصال آب از رطوبت هوا تحت سناریوهای RCP4.5 و RCP8.5

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار گروه مهندسی آب، دانشگاه بین المللی امام خمینی (ره) ، قزوین

2 گروه مهندسی آب، دانشگاه بین المللی امام خمینی (ره)، قزوین، ایران

3 3. دانشجوی دوره دکتری آبیاری و زهکشی، گروه علوم و مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه بین‌المللی امام خمینی (ره)،

10.30467/nivar.2023.417155.1264

چکیده

استحصال آب از رطوبت هوا به عنوان یکی از روش‌های نوین و پایدار برای تأمین منابع آب در مناطق با کمبود منابع آب طبیعی و همچنین در شرایط وقوع خشکسالی از اهمیت بالایی برخوردار است. با توجه به تاثیرپذیریِ کمیت آب قابل استحصال از رطوبت هوا از تغییرات متغیرهای جوی هواشناسی همچون دمای هوا، سرعت باد و رطوبت هوا، بنابراین پتانسیل استحصال آب از رطوبت هوا می‌تواند به شدت تحت تاثیر تغییرات اقلیمی قرار بگیرد. لذا پژوهش حاضر با هدف بررسی تغییرات پتانسیل استحصال آب از رطوبت هوا تحت سناریوهای RCP4.5 و RCP8.5 از گزارش پنجم تغییر اقلیم به انجام رسیده است. نتایج در دوره پایه نشان داد که مدل‌های اقلیمی از کارایی مناسبی برای بررسی پتانسیل استحصال آب از رطوبت هوا برخوردار می‌باشند به‌طوری که متوسط شاخص همبستگی در سطح ایستگاه‌های مطالعاتی بیش از 67/0 و مقدار شاخص خطای RMSE به 83/1 لیتر بر متر مربع در روز به محدود شده است. علاوه بر این پایش شرایط استحصال آب از رطوبت هوا تحت سناریوهای اقلیمی در دوره‌های آتی حاکی از وجود روند افزایشی در سطح اطمینان 95 درصد در مقدار آب قابل استحصال از رطوبت هوا است، چنانکه مقدار آماره آزمون ناپارامتری من‌کندال تحت سناریوهای RCP4.5 و RCP8.5 در دوره‌های 2050-2026 و 2100-2076 بیش از 64/1 برآورد شده است. بطورکلی، براساس نتایج مشخص شد که منطقه‌ی شمال-غرب محدوده مطالعاتی از بیشترین پتانسیل برای اجرای طرح‌های استحصال آب از رطوبت هوا برخوردار می‌باشد. بنابراین با توجه به وقوع گرمایش جهانی در سال‌های اخیر، افزایش نیاز‌های آبی در بخش‌های مختلف و به تبع افزایش فشار بر منابع آب موجود، لزوم توجه به این منبع آبی، برنامه‌ریزی و اقدام جدی به منظور کاربرد آن بیش از پیش احساس می‌شود. نتایج تحقیق حاضر می‌تواند در راستای برنامه‌ریزی برای مدیریت پایدار منابع آب تحت تاثیر گرمایش جهانی مفید باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Effects of Climate Change on the Potential of Water Harvesting from Air Humidity Under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 Scenarios

نویسندگان [English]

  • Hadi Ramezani Etedali 1
  • Sakine Koohi 2
  • Zahra Partovi 3
1 Department of Water Engineering, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran
2 Water Engineering Dept./ Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran
3 3. PhD student of Irrigation and Drainage, Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran. E-mail: zahra73.partoviii@gmail.com, 09198483943.
چکیده [English]

Extracting water from air humidity as one of the new and sustainable methods for providing water resources in areas with a lack of natural water resources and also in the conditions of drought is of great importance. Considering the influence of the amount of water that can be extracted from air humidity on changes in meteorological variables such as air temperature, wind speed and air humidity, therefore the potential of water extraction from air humidity can be strongly affected by climate changes. Therefore, the current research has been carried out with the aim of investigating the potential changes of water extraction from air humidity under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios from the fifth climate change report. The results in the base period showed that the climate models have a suitable efficiency for investigating the potential of water extraction from air humidity, so that the average correlation index at the level of study stations is more than 0.67 and the value of the RMSE error index is 1.83 liters per square meter in The day is limited to In addition, the monitoring of water extraction conditions from air humidity under climate scenarios in the coming periods indicates the existence of an increasing trend at the 95% confidence level in the amount of water that can be extracted from air humidity, such as the value of Menkendall's non-parametric test under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. In the periods of 2026-2050 and 2076-2100, it is estimated to be more than 1.64. In general, based on the results, it was found that the northwest region of the study area has the greatest potential for the implementation of water extraction projects from air humidity. Therefore, due to the occurrence of global warming in recent years, the increase in water needs in different sectors and the consequent increase in pressure on the available water resources, the need to pay attention to this water source, planning and taking serious action for its use is felt more than ever. The results of the present research can be useful in planning for the sustainable management of water resources under the influence of global warming.
 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Unconventional Water
  • Global Warming
  • Water Harvesting
  • Climate Scenarios
  • CMIP5

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  • تاریخ دریافت: 28 شهریور 1402
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 15 مهر 1402
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 19 مهر 1402
  • تاریخ اولین انتشار: 19 مهر 1402

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