مروری بر مطالعات تاثیرات تغییرات اقلیمی بر طوفان‌های حاره‌ای

علی محمدی, مهریار; پاخیره زن, محمد; خوارزمی, سعیده

doi:10.30467/nivar.2022.322810.1210

مروری بر مطالعات تاثیرات تغییرات اقلیمی بر طوفان‌های حاره‌ای

نوع مقاله : مقاله ترویجی

نویسندگان

¹ دکتری هواشناسی، گروه عملیات ویژه و شناسایی ساحل دانشگاه علوم دریایی امام خمینی (ره) نوشهر

² دکتری اقیانوس‌شناسی، دانشکده علوم و فنون دریایی دانشگاه هرمزگان

³ دکتری هواشناسی، کارشناس پیش بینی استان هرمزگان

10.30467/nivar.2022.322810.1210

چکیده

این مقاله درصدد است، به بررسی تاثیرات تغییرات اقلیمی بر طوفان‌های حاره‌ای بپردازد. مطالعه حاضر با بهره‌گیری و بررسی منابع کتابخانه‌ای موجود انجام گرفته است. نتایج نشان می دهد که گرم شدن سطح اقیانوس منجر به طوفان‌های حاره‌ای شدیدتر می شود. از طرف دیگر با بالا آمدن سطح آب اقیانوس، قدرت تخریب طوفان ها در مناطق ساحلی بیشتر خواهد شد. افزایش سطح دریا خود ناشی از تغییرات آب‌وهوایی می‌باشد. از طرفی پیش‌بینی می‌شود که نسبت طوفان‌های حاره‌ای بسیار شدید (درجه 4 و 5) افزایش یابد، این درصورتی است که اکثر مطالعات مدل آب‌وهوایی پیش‌بینی می‌کنند که تعداد کل طوفان حاره‌ای در هر سال کاهش یا تقریباً ثابت بماند. همچنین مدل‌ها پیش‌بینی می‌کنند که با گرم شدن کره زمین در دهه‌های آینده، برخی از مناطق افزایش در نرخ تشدید سرعت، انتقال عرض جغرافیای بیشینه شدت به سمت قطب یا کاهش حرکت روبه‌جلو طوفان حاره‌ای را تجربه خواهند کرد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigating the changes in the nature of tropical cyclones due to climate change

نویسندگان [English]

mehriar alimohammadi ¹
mohammad pakhirehzan ²
Saeedeh Kharazmi ³

¹ PhD in Meteorology, Department of Special Operations and Coast reconnaissance, Imam Khomeini University of Marine Sciences, Nowshahr

² Ph.D. in Oceanography, Faculty of Marine Science and Technology, Hormozgan University

³ Doctor of meteorology, forecasting expert of Hormozgan province

چکیده [English]

This article aims to investigate the effects of climate change on tropical cyclones. The present study has been carried out by using and examining the available library resources. The results show that ocean surface warming leads to more intense tropical storms. On the other hand, with the rise of the ocean water level, the destructive power of storms in coastal areas will increase. The rise of the sea level itself is caused by climate change. On the other hand, the proportion of very intense tropical cyclones (Category 4 and 5) is projected to increase, even though most climate model studies predict that the total number of tropical cyclones per year will decrease or remain nearly constant. Also, models predict that as the Earth warms in the coming decades, some regions will experience an increase in the rate of intensification, a poleward shift of the geographic latitude of the maximum intensity, or a decrease in tropical cyclone forward motion. Keywords: Tropical Cyclone, Climate Change, Foresight

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

Tropical Cyclone
Climate Change
Forecast

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