نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 دانشیار آب و هواشناسی دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان
2 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد اقلیم شناسی دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
The main purpose of modeling time series of observations of a particular order is dependent on time according to their predictions to be made for the future. The main purpose of the analysis of time series and forecasting by the model changes. Study to predict future climate change, maximum temperature of Shiraz for the period (2011-2020) is using the box and Jenkize model. At the beginning of the study to avoid bias the polls and the final of the series a decade to predict and verify the model was abandoned. Mean and variance of the series of static tests was to restore order in the series, the series are not static. Conduct an annual series of highpass filter (the difference) was removed and graphics ACF and identify the model was based on the difference PACF series ARIMA model = (3, 2, 1) were chosen. The adjusted model was chosen and finally go through the analysis of residues was examined and its validity was confirmed. Finally, after several steps and a more complete model are mounted to the minimum mean squared error, the model predictions were tested and the prototype that has been set aside to test the predictions. Correlation between actual and predicted values was complete. This change was predicted in the series
کلیدواژهها [English]
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