نیوار

نیوار

واکاوی توزیع مکانی بارش‌های روزانه تندری حدی فراگیر در محدوده دریاچه ارومیه

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 گروه آب و هواشناسی، واحد مرند، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، مرند، ایران.
2 دانشکده علوم زمین، دانشگاه مک کواری سیدنی. استرالیا.
3 گروه جغرافیا، واحد اهر، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اهر، ایران.
10.30467/nivar.2026.558850.1359
چکیده
هدف این پژوهش، تحلیل الگوی مکانی بارش‌های روزانه تندری حدی ( مساوی و بیشتر از ۱۰ میلی‌متر) در محدوده دریاچه ارومیه طی دوره ۲۰۱۵ تا ۲۰۲۴ است. برای این منظور، ابتدا داده‌های بارش روزانه ۱۶ ایستگاه هواشناسی گردآوری و با اعمال سه شرط هم‌زمانی رخداد، شدت حدی و گسترش فضایی، رویدادهای تندری فراگیر شناسایی شد. سپس، به‌منظور رفع محدودیت‌های درونیابی در سطح دریاچه، داده‌های ماهواره‌ای پرشین با قدرت تفکیک مکانی بالا 4 در 4 کیلومتر استخراج و برای همان روزهای منتخب پردازش گردید. در ادامه، جهت آشکارسازی الگوهای مکانی غالب، یک رویکرد آماری–مکانی ترکیبی شامل تحلیل چارک سوم و انحراف معیار داده‌های رستری اعمال شد و برای تبیین ساختار فضایی بارش‌ها، تحلیل مؤلفه‌های اصلی بر روی ماتریس هم‌تغییرپذیری داده‌های ماهواره‌ای انجام گرفت. نتایج نشان داد نواحی جنوب و جنوب‌غرب دریاچه بیشترین مقادیر بارش‌های تندری حدی و بخش‌های شرق، شمال‌شرق و به‌ویژه شمال دریاچه کمترین مقدار را دریافت می‌کنند. همچنین، رخدادهای تندری عمدتاً الگوی زمانی بهاره (مارس–می) و در مرتبه بعد زمستانه (دسامبر–فوریه) دارند. روش ترکیبی به‌کاررفته توانست ناهمگنی مکانی بارش‌های تندری و الگوهای غالب فراگیر را با دقت بیشتری نسبت به تحلیل صرف ایستگاه‌های زمینی آشکار سازد. دستاوردهای این مطالعه می‌تواند در پایش تغییرات اقلیمی منطقه، بهبود مدل‌های بارش و برنامه‌ریزی احیای دریاچه ارومیه مورد استفاده قرار گیرد.
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

Spatial Analysis of Basin-Wide Extreme Daily Thunderstorm Precipitation over the Lake Urmia Region

نویسندگان English

Amin Arabloie Moghaddam 1
Ali Akbar Rasouli Piruzian 2
Karim Amini Nia 3
1 Department of Meteorology, Mara.C., Islamic Azad University, Marand, Iran.
2 School of Geosciences, Macquarie university Sydney, Australia
3 Department of Geography, Ah.C., Islamic Azad University, Ahar , Iran
چکیده English

The present study aims to investigate the spatial pattern of extreme daily thunderstorm precipitation events (≥10 mm) across the Lake Urmia region during the 2015–2024 period. To achieve this, daily precipitation records from 16 synoptic meteorological stations were assembled, and widespread thunderstorm events were identified using three simultaneous criteria: temporal concurrence of occurrence, extreme-intensity threshold, and spatial coverage. To address the limitations of interpolation over the lake surface, high–spatial–resolution (4 × 4 km) PERSIANN satellite precipitation products were subsequently extracted and processed for the same selected event days.
To uncover the dominant spatial configurations, a hybrid statistical–geospatial analytical framework was employed, consisting of third-quartile and standard-deviation diagnostics of raster precipitation fields. Furthermore, principal component analysis (PCA) was applied to the covariance matrix of the satellite-derived datasets to elucidate the spatial structure of the events.
The results reveal that the southern and southwestern sectors of Lake Urmia receive the highest amounts of extreme thunderstorm precipitation, whereas the eastern, northeastern, and especially northern sectors experience the lowest totals. The temporal distribution of the detected thunderstorm events is predominantly springtime (March–May), followed by secondary occurrences during winter (December–February). The integrated methodology adopted in this study effectively captures the spatial heterogeneity and dominant widespread patterns of thunderstorm precipitation with greater precision than ground-station-only analyses. These findings provide valuable insights for regional climate-change monitoring, the refinement of precipitation modeling systems, and planning initiatives aimed at the ecological restoration of Lake Urmia.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Widespread Extreme Thunderstorm Precipitation
Statistical&‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌ndash
Spatial Analyses
PERSIANN Satellite Precipitation Data
Lake Urmia Region
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مقالات آماده انتشار، پذیرفته شده
انتشار آنلاین از 14 دی 1404

  • تاریخ دریافت 19 آبان 1404
  • تاریخ بازنگری 07 دی 1404
  • تاریخ پذیرش 14 دی 1404
  • تاریخ انتشار 14 دی 1404