نیوار

نیوار

ارزیابی تغییرات الگوهای زمانی تنش گرمایی بر ذرت علوفه‌ای در ایران تحت سناریوهای اقلیمی آینده

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 استاد گروه مهندسی آب، دانشگاه بین المللی امام خمینی (ره) ، قزوین
2 گروه مهندسی آب، دانشگاه بین المللی امام خمینی (ره)، قزوین، ایران
10.30467/nivar.2025.543264.1352
چکیده
چکیده
در سال‌های اخیر، تغییرات اقلیمی منجر به افزایش وقوع تنش‌های گرمایی و تهدید پایداری سیستم‌های کشاورزی شده است. با توجه به حساسیت بالای ذرت علوفه‌ای به‌عنوان یکی از نهاده‌های کلیدی دامی نسبت به دماهای بیشینه، بنابراین الگوهای زمانی تنش گرمایی (شامل فراوانی، شدت و مدت) می‌تواند به شدت تحت تأثیر گرمایش جهانی قرار گیرد. لذا پژوهش حاضر با هدف بررسی تغییرات الگوهای زمانی تنش گرمایی وارد بر ذرت علوفه‌ای تحت سناریوهای SSP2-4.5 و SSP5-8.5 از گزارش ششم تغییر اقلیم به انجام رسیده است. نتایج در دوره پایه نشان داد که خروجی اقلیمی از دقت مناسبی برای شبیه‌سازی دمای بیشینه برخوردار می‌باشد، به‌طوری‌که مقدار شاخص خطای NRMSE به ۱۳/۰ درجه سلسیوس محدود شده است. علاوه‌براین، پیش بینی شرایط تنش گرمایی تحت سناریوهای اقلیمی در دوره‌های آتی حاکی از وجود روند افزایشی در سطح اطمینان 90 درصد در دمای بیشینه و تحت سناریوی اقلیمی SSP5-8.5 است. به‌طورکلی، براساس نتایج مشخص شد که استان‌های جنوبی و جنوب‌شرقی کشور (مانند خوزستان، هرمزگان و سیستان و بلوچستان) از بیشترین آسیب‌پذیری نسبت به افزایش فراوانی (تا ۶۵ درصد)، شدت (بیش از ۵۵ درجه سلسیوس) و تداوم (تا ۹ ماه) تنش گرمایی برخوردار می‌باشند. بنابراین با توجه به وقوع گرمایش جهانی در سال‌های اخیر و افزایش فراوانی در بروز تنش‌های گرمایی وارد بر محصولات زراعی، ضرورت توجه به این ریسک اقلیمی و برنامه‌ریزی برای اتخاذ راهکارهای سازگاری بیش از پیش احساس می‌شود. نتایج تحقیق حاضر می‌تواند در راستای برنامه‌ریزی برای مدیریت پایدار کشاورزی تحت تأثیر گرمایش جهانی مفید واقع شود.
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

Evaluation of Ttemporal Patterns of Heat Stress on Forage Maize in Iran Under Future Climate Scenarios

نویسندگان English

Hadi Ramezani Etedali 1
Sakine Koohi 2
1 Department of Water Engineering, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran
2 Water Engineering Dept./ Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran
چکیده English

Abstract
In recent years, climate change has led to an increase in the occurrence of heat stress, threatening the sustainability of agricultural systems. Given the high sensitivity of forage maize, as one of the key livestock feed inputs, to maximum temperatures, the temporal patterns of heat stress (including frequency, intensity, and duration) can be strongly affected by global warming. Therefore, the present study was conducted to investigate the changes in temporal patterns of heat stress on forage maize under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios from the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. Results in the base period indicated that the climate model outputs had acceptable accuracy in simulating maximum temperature, with the NRMSE limited to 0.13 °C. Moreover, monitoring future heat stress conditions under climate scenarios revealed an increasing trend at a 90% confidence level in maximum temperature, particularly under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. Overall, the findings showed that the southern and southeastern provinces of Iran (such as Khozestan, Hormozgan, and Sistan and Baluchestan) are the most vulnerable to increases in heat stress frequency (up to 65%), intensity (above 55 °C), and duration (up to 9 months). Therefore, considering the occurrence of global warming in recent years and the increasing frequency of heat stress on crops, urgent attention, planning, and action are required to adopt effective adaptation strategies. The findings of this study can contribute to sustainable agricultural management under the impacts of global warming.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Keywords: Heat stress
Global warming
Trend analysis
Emission scenarios
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مقالات آماده انتشار، پذیرفته شده
انتشار آنلاین از 03 دی 1404

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