پیش‌نگری تغییرات دما و بارش با استفاده از سناریوهای واداشت تابشی مولد آب و هوایی LARS-WG در زاگرس جنوبی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 کارشناس ارشد مهندسی عمران- مهندسی مدیریت منابع آب(جزء انجمن ملی حامی نخبگان)، دانشگاه یاسوج، یاسوج

2 کارشناس ارشد مهندسی عمران، مهندسی مدیریت منابع آب، دانشگاه یاسوج، کهگیلویه و بویر احمد، ایران.

3 کارشناس مهندسی عمران- عمران، چهارمحال و بختیاری، ایران.

10.30467/nivar.2022.319565.1209

چکیده

پیش‌ نگری تغییرات متغیرهای هواشناسی در دراز مدت، از اهمیت زیادی در مطالعات تغییرات اقلیمی برخوردار است. این مطالعه با هدف ارائه چشم-اندازی از تغییرات دما و بارش در منطقه غرب و جنوب غرب ایران با استفاده از سناریوهای واداشت تابشی مولد آب و هوایی LARS-WG و نمایش نتایج در محیط GIS می باشد تا در دهه‌های آینده برنامه‌ریزهای کلانی به منظور اتخاذ روش‌های سازگار و کاهش پیامدهای گرمایش جهانی انجام شود. بدین منظور مقادیر روزانه بارش، بیشینه دما، کمینه دما و ساعات آفتابی 34 ایستگاه هواشناسی مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. اقلیم این ایستگاه‌ها بر اساس روش طبقه بندی دومارتن تعیین و از معیارهای اندازه گیری خطای پیش بینی همانند میانگین قدر مطلق انحرافات MAD ، میانگین مجذور خطا MSE ، جذر میانگین مجذور خطا RMSE و درصد میانگین قدر مطلق خطا MAPE استفاده شد. مدل ریز مقیاس نمایی آماری LARS-WG برای تحلیل داده‌های تاریخی روزانه بارش، تابش خورشیدی و درجه حرارت های بیشینه و کمینه روزانه در ایستگاه‌های مورد مطالعه و شبیه سازی داده‌های هواشناسی آینده با در نظرگرفتن سناریوهای اقلیمی RCP4.5 و RCP8.5 به کار گرفته شد. نتایج نشان داد که مدل با دقت بالایی قادر به شبیه سازی می‌باشد. دوره آماری 2018-1980 میلادی با دوره آماری 2038- 2018 تحت سناریو‌های RCP4.5 و RCP8.5 مورد مقایسه قرار گرفت؛ نتایج بدست آمده برای ایستگاه‌های مورد مطالعه، بطور کلی روند افزایش دما و کاهش میزان بارش را نشان داد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Forecasting future temperature and precipitation under the effects of climate change using the LARS-WG climate generator (Case Study: South Zagros Region of Iran(

نویسندگان [English]

  • Hassan Mohammadi 1
  • Reza khalili 2
  • Sajad Mohammadi 3
1 Responsible author, Master of Civil Engineering - Water Resources Management Engineering (part of the National Association for the Support of Elites), Yasouj University, Yasouj, Iran.
2 Master of Civil Engineering, Water Resources Management Engineering, Yasouj University, Kohgiluyeh and Boyer Ahmad, Iran
3 Civil Engineering Expert, Civil Engineering, Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Predicting changes in meteorological variables in the long run is of great importance in the study of climate change. The aim of this study is to provide a perspective of temperature and precipitation changes in the western and southwestern regions of Iran using climate-generating radiation induction scenarios LARS-WG and display the results in GIS environment so that in the coming decades macro-planners In order to adopt compatible methods and reduce the consequences of global warming. For this purpose, daily precipitation, maximum temperature, minimum temperature and sunny hours of 34 meteorological stations were studied. The climate of these stations was determined based on the Domartan classification method. LARS-WG statistical exponential model for analyzing historical data on daily rainfall, solar radiation, and daily maximum and minimum temperatures at the stations under study and to simulate future meteorological data were utilized with considering RCP4.5 and RCP8 climate scenarios. The results showed that the model can simulate with high accuracy. The 1980-2018 statistical period was compared with the 2018-2038 statistical period under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios; the results for the stations under study showed a general process of increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • "Precipitation"
  • "Climate change"
  • "South Zagros"
  • "Temperature"
  • "RCP"
  • "LARS-WG"
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