بررسی خطر گرمایش جهانی در قاره آسیا در بازه زمانی 1949 تا 2014

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار دانشگاه شیراز

2 گروه مهندسی منابع طبیعی و محیط زیست، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز

10.30467/nivar.2018.82231.1057

چکیده

گرمایش جهانی یکی از مهمترین چالشهای زیست محیطی کره زمین به شمار می رود. هدف اصلی این تحقیق بررسی تغییرات دما در قاره آسیا است. بدین منظور داده‌های دمای ماهانه 66 نقطه از کشورهای مختلف قاره آسیا از سال 1949 تا 2014 موردبررسی قرار گرفت. در این بررسی چگونگی تغییرات دما ازلحاظ افزایش، کاهش و سطح معنی‌داری مطالعه گردید. برحسب نزدیک‌ترین نقطه دارای داده به نقاط شهری موردنظر از سایت NOAA، میانگین دمای سالانه طی سال‌های 1949 تا 2014 برای هر نقطه محاسبه شد. همچنین نمودار تغییرات دما مربوط به هر نقطه در بازه زمانی موردنظر رسم و روند آن بر اساس معادله خطی رگرسیون بررسی شد. برای تعیین گستره تغییرات دما از روشهای درونیابی گوناگون در GIS استفاده شد. بر اساس نتایج به‌دست‌آمده، 99 درصد از مساحت آسیا افزایش دما و در 1 درصد از مساحت آسیا تغییرات معنی‌داری در سطح 5 درصد مشاهده نشد. در کل می‌توان به این نکته اشاره کرد که در این قاره میزان دما 94/0 درجه سلسیوس در بازه موردمطالعه افزایش‌یافته است. در کلاسه‌بندی طراحی‌شده خطر از بعد مقادیر آماری گرمایش جهانی، 7/34 درصد کم‌خطر، 1/29 درصد خطر متوسط، 8/33 درصد خطر شدید و 4/2 درصد خطر خیلی شدید را نشان می‌دهد. با توجه به نقشه‌های تهیه ‌شده، اکثر نواحی نیمه شمالی قاره روند افزایش دمای بیشتر و خطر شدیدتری را نشان می دهند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Risk Assessment of Global Warming in Asia in the period of 1949 to 2014

نویسنده [English]

  • S. Razieh Hendizadeh 2
چکیده [English]

Global warming is considered as one of the important environmental problem for the earth. The aim of this study is to investigate the changes of temperature in Asia. For this purpose, the monthly temperature data of 66 points were studied in all over Asia from 1949 to 2014. In this study, the changes of temperature were investigated in terms of increase, decrease and the level of significance. According to nearest points to considered urban points from NOAA site, annual average of temperature during 1949 to 2014 was calculated for each point. Also temperature change graph for each point in the period was prepared and trend of it based on regression linear equation was investigated. Different interpolation methods in GIS were used to determine the changes of temperature. According to the results obtained, 99% of Asia shows increasing and in 1% of the area doesn’t show any significant changes in 5% level. In total, amount of temperature in Asia has been increased by 0.94◦C during the study period. In a developed hazard classification for global warming, 34.7% shows slight hazard, 29.1% in moderate hazard, 33.8% in severe hazard and 2.4% in very severe hazard. According to prepared maps northern parts of the continent showed more increasing in temperature and more severe hazard.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • temperature change trends
  • Climate change
  • GIS
  • Asia
  • hazard vulnerability

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