آشکارسازی تغییرات اقلیمی طی نیم‌قرن گذشته در محدوده تعدادی از ایستگاه‌های سینوپتیک کشور

نظری, مریم; مساعدی, ابوالفضل; قبائی سوق, محمد

doi:10.30467/nivar.2025.529236.1339

آشکارسازی تغییرات اقلیمی طی نیم‌قرن گذشته در محدوده تعدادی از ایستگاه‌های سینوپتیک کشور

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

مریم نظری ¹

ابوالفضل مساعدی ²

محمد قبائی سوق ³

¹ دانشجوی دکتری، گروه علوم و مهندسی آب، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

² استاد، گروه علوم و مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران

³ شرکت مدیریت منابع آب ایران، تهران

10.30467/nivar.2025.529236.1339

چکیده

در دهه‌های اخیر، تغییرات اقلیمی به عنوان یکی از چالش‌های اساسی زیست‌محیطی در جهان، به‌ویژه در مناطق خشک و نیمه‌خشک، از جمله ایران، مورد توجه قرار گرفته است. در این پژوهش، با هدف ارزیابی وضعیت تغییرات اقلیم کشور طی نیم‌قرن گذشته، از چهار روش معتبر تعیین اقلیم شامل، دومارتن، ایوانف، سلیانینوف و آمبرژه، استفاده شده است. داده‌های اقلیمی ۳۶ ایستگاه هواشناسی در دو بازه زمانی متمایز شامل: گذشته دور (۱۹96–۱۹72) و گذشته نزدیک (۲۰۲۱–۱۹۹۷) تحلیل شدند تا تغییرات احتمالی در نوع اقلیم مناطق مختلف کشور شناسایی گردد. نتایج حاکی از آن است که در بیشتر ایستگاه‌ها، هم‌زمان با افزایش دما و کاهش بارش، وضعیت اقلیمی به سمت شرایط خشک‌تر و گرم‌تر تغییر پیدا کرده است. این تغییرات به‌ویژه در شهرهایی همچون تربت حیدریه، مشهد، گرگان، سنندج و فسا به طور واضحی مشهود بوده و در تحلیل‌های انجام‌شده با چهار روش معتبر طبقه‌بندی اقلیم نیز مورد تأیید قرار گرفته‌اند. هم‌چنین در ایستگاه‌های مناطق مرطوب مانند بابلسر، رامسر و بندر انزلی نیز نتایج نشان‌دهنده روندی کاهشی در رطوبت محیط است. تغییر نوع اقلیم از نیمه‌خشک به خشک و حتی بیابانی معتدل در برخی ایستگاه‌ها، نشان‌دهنده گسترش وسعت مناطق خشک و بیابانی در کشور است. یافته‌های این پزوهش هم نشان می‌دهد که کشور ایران به طور فزاینده‌ای در معرض گرمایش و خشکی اقلیمی قرار دارد. با توجه به این نتایج، بازنگری اساسی در برنامه‌ریزی‌های مدیریت منابع آب و الگوهای کشاورزی برای کاهش آسیب‌پذیری کشور در برابر تغییرات اقلیمی و سازگاری با تغییرات اقلیمی ضروری است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

تغییر اقلیم

افزایش دما

کاهش بارندگی

ایران

موضوعات

اقلیم شناسی

عنوان مقاله English

Detecting climate changes during the past half century in some number of synoptic stations in Iran

نویسندگان English

Maryam Nazari ¹

Abolfazl Mosaedi ²

Mohammad Ghabaei Sough ³

¹ Ph.D. Candidate, Department of Water Science and Engineering, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Iran.

² Professor of Hydrology and Water Resources Eng. Water Science and Engineering Department Agriculture Faculty Ferdowsi University of Mashhad Mashhad Iran

³ Iran Water Resources Management Company, Tehran, , Iran

چکیده English

In recent decades, climate change has emerged as a major environmental challenge worldwide, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions, such as Iran. This study aims to evaluate the climatic changes in the country over the past fifty years using four well-established climate classification methods, including De Martonne, Ivanov, Selyaninov, and Emberger. Climatic data from 36 synoptic stations were analyzed over two periods: the previous period (1972–1996) and the recent period (1997–2021), to identify to identify possible changes in the climate type of different regions of the country. The results indicate that in most stations, the climate situation has changed towards drier and warmer conditions, along with increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation. These changes were particularly evident in cities such as Torbat Heydarieh, Mashhad, Gorgan, Sanandaj, and Fasa, and were consistently confirmed by analyses using four well-established climate classification methods. Furthermore, in stations in humid areas such as Babolsar, Ramsar, and Bandar Anzali, the results indicate a decreasing trend in ambient humidity. The change in climate type from semi-arid to arid and even temperate desert in some stations indicates the expansion of the area of arid and desert areas in the country.The findings of this study also show that Iran is increasingly exposed to climate warming and drought. Given these results, a fundamental review of water resources management plans and agricultural patterns is necessary to reduce the country's vulnerability to climate change and adapt to climate change.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Climate Change

Temperature increasing

Precipitation decreasing

Iran

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