An analysis of precipitation regime change in Zanjan province

Document Type : Original Article

Author

Abstract

One of the climate change consequences is changing precipitation characteristics. One of the precipitation characteristics is precipitation regime affected by climate change. Precipitation regime is an indication of seasonal- monthly distribution of precipitation. Thus it provides a possibility to compare seasonal and monthly precipitation with each others. Precipitation is the result of physical, spatial and temporal factors interactions that could be investigated by many different indices. This paper applied Seasonal Index (SI) to investigate seasonal distribution of precipitation. This index and its change can represent a lot of information on precipitation regime and its change. In this paper 31 synoptic and climatology stations of Zanjan province have been used during 35 years to investigate the change of precipitation regime. In order to produce precipitation maps and using interpolation technique, six stations out of 29 were chosen from out of the province boundary. At first explorative characteristics of monthly precipitation have been shown graphically and statistically. Then temporal change, seasonal index and long-term changes have been estimated. Seasonal index manifests two regime categories. The first one is seasonal regime with a short dry season that covers 79.4% of the province. The other is completely seasonal regime that covers 20.6% of the province area. In both regimes the trend of precipitation is decreasing during the under investigated period.    At the first regime region decreasing trend of Seasonal Index is about 0.1 to 0.3 and at the second one maximum decrease is 0.2. This change of behavior in regime is a proof of partly temporal concentration of the precipitation. Therefore it seems that the increasing of precipitation during July, November and December isn't significant statistically, as the standard statistical tests proof it. The results of this paper show a decreasing of local processes especially in spring and June-September.         

Keywords

References

  1. 1-   انصاری بصیر، ارمغان (1386). " ارزیابی رژیم بارش فصلی در ایران با استفاده از روش هارمونی" پایان نامه کارشناسی ارشد رشته هواشناسی کشاورزی. دانشکده کشاورزی دانشگاه شیراز.

    2-   رضئیی، طیب و عزیزی، قاسم (1386): "گزارش فنی: منطقه بندی رژیم بارشی غرب ایران با استفاده از روش های تحلیل مولفه های اصلی و خوشه بندی" تحقیقات منابع آب ایران . شماره 8

    3-   عساکره حسین، 1387، کاربرد روش کریجینگ در میان یابی بارش. مطالعه موردی: میان یابی بارش 26/12/1376 در ایران زمین. مجله جغرافیا و توسعه، سال پنجم، شماره 12

    4-   فلاح قهرودی، غلام عباس، موسوی بایگی ، محمد و حبیبی نوخندان، مجید (1387): "پیش بینی بارش فصلی براساس الگوهای همدیدی با استفاده از سیستم‌های استنباط فازی- عصبی تطبیقی (ANFIS) " مجله پژوهش‌های جغرافیای طبیعی شماره 66.

    5-   کاویانی، محمدرضا (1372 ). “تحلیلی آماری از رژیم بارندگی ایران“. مجلة رشد آموزش جغرافیا شمارة 12.

    6-   مسعودیان، سید ابوالفضل و عطایی، هوشمند (1384): شناسایی فصول بارشی ایران به روش تحلیل خوشه‌ای. مجله پژوهشی دانشگاه اصفهان. جلد هیجدهم. شماره 1.

    1.  Chen.  L. X. Li. W. L., Zhu. W. Q., Zhou. X. J., Zhou. Z. J and Liu. H. L. 2006: seasonal trends of climate cange in the Yangtze delta and its adjacent regions and their formation mechanisms. Meteorol Atmosphys 92, 11-23.
    2.  Jun-Ichi, Hamada, Yamanaka,Manabu .D, Matsumoto, Jun. Fukao, Schoichiro. Winarso, Paulus .Agus and Sribimawati, Tien, 2002: Spatial and Temporal Variations of the Rainy Season over Indonesia and their Link to ENSO. Journal of Meteorological Society of Japan, Vol. 80, No. 2, 285-310
    3.   Kadioglu. Mikdat, Ozturk. Naim, Erdun Hakan and Sen. Zekai 1999:on the precipitation climatology of Turkey by harmonic analysis.Int . J. Climatol.19: 1717-1728
    4.  Karagiannidis A. F., Bloutsos A. A, Maheras P., and Sachsamanoglouy. Ch. 2008: Some statistical characteristics of precipitation in Europe. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 91: 193:2004
    5.  Kirkyla, Kristina.I and Hameed, Sultan 1989 Harmonic analysis of the seasonal cycle in precipitation over the united state: Acomparison between observations and a general circulation model. Journal of climate. ? 1463-1475
    6. Livada, I, Chralambous. G, Assimakopoulos. M. N. 2008: Spatial and temporal study of precipitation characteristics over Greece. Theor. Appl. Climatol.93:45-55
    7.  Odekunle. T. O. 2006: Determining rainy season onset and retreat over Nigeria from precipitation amount and number of rainy day. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 83,193-201
    8.  Scott, Cynthia. M and Shulman, Mark, D 1979: An Areal and Temporal Analysis of Precipitation in the Northeastern United States. Journal of Applied Meteorology. Vol 18. 627-633
    9.   Tarawneh.Q and Kadioglu, M. 2003: An analysis of precipitation Climatology in Jordan. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 74, 123-136.
    10. Walsh RPD, Lawler DM (1981) Rainfall seasonality spatial patterns and change through time. Weather 36:201–208
    11. Ye. H and Cho. H. R 2001: Spatial and temporal characteristics of intraseasonal oscillation of precipitation over the United States. Theor. Appl.Climatol. 68, 51-66.

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

Nivar
Volume 34, 71-70 - Serial Number 71
September 2010
Pages 63-76

Files

History

  • Receive Date: 13 April 2009
  • Revise Date: 11 June 2009
  • Accept Date: 06 September 2009
  • First Publish Date: 23 September 2010

Share

How to cite

Statistics