Application of auto-regression and Halt-Winters Models in droughts and wet year's prediction in Ahvaz

Document Type : Original Article

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Abstract

Climatic factors, especially rainfall, the most significant periods of time. Recognizing these changes, allowing optimum utilization of nature provides. The present research has been carried out with the purpose of time-based fluctuations of precipitation, the determination of droughts and wet periods, and the possibility of their prediction for Ahvaz. The wet and dry (droughts) periods and their intensity and successiveness have been estimated through the calculation of Z standard score and five-year moving mean. The possibility of their prediction has been accomplished by the use of time series models of Halt-Winters and auto regression. For doing so, we have applied the 45-year data precipitation records of Ahvaz synoptic station (1955 -2009). Results of our study indicate that the predicted values through Auto-regression have more proximity with the observed values

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References

 
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History

  • Receive Date: 13 May 2011
  • Revise Date: 14 July 2011
  • Accept Date: 14 November 2011
  • First Publish Date: 01 April 2012

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