Nivar

Nivar

Evaluating the Accuracy of Wave Forecasting Models in Data-Limited Areas such as the Oman Sea

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
1 Marine Expert, Port and Martime Organization, Tehran, Iran
2 Marine Expert, Port and Maritime Organization, Tehran, Iran
10.30467/nivar.2026.579946.1379
Abstract
Reliable wave forecasts are essential for maritime safety, port operations, and hazard warnings. In areas such as the Oman Sea, where in-situ observations are scarce, validating and improving numerical wave models remains a challenge. This study examines the performance of the WAVEWATCH III model in predicting wave height and period under limited-data conditions.
The model was forced with surface wind fields from ECMWF and regional bathymetry. Its results were compared with satellite observations and the few available buoy records. Statistical measures, including RMSE, BIAS, and Scatter Index, were used to evaluate accuracy. Findings show that the model performs well under normal conditions but tends to lose accuracy during extreme events such as monsoon storms. The quality of wind input data was also found to strongly influence model performance.
Overall, the study indicates that combining satellite data, numerical modeling, and statistical correction techniques can enhance wave forecasts in data-sparse regions. These insights are useful for maritime agencies, port managers, and policymakers in Iran and the Persian Gulf, and underline the importance of improving observational networks and early warning systems.

Reliable wave forecasts are essential for maritime safety, port operations, and hazard warnings. In areas such as the Oman Sea, where in-situ observations are scarce, validating and improving numerical wave models remains a challenge. This study examines the performance of the WAVEWATCH III model in predicting wave height and period under limited-data conditions.
The model was forced with surface wind fields from ECMWF and regional bathymetry. Its results were compared with satellite observations and the few available buoy records. Statistical measures, including RMSE, BIAS, and Scatter Index, were used to evaluate accuracy. Findings show that the model performs well under normal conditions but tends to lose accuracy during extreme events such as monsoon storms. The quality of wind input data was also found to strongly influence model performance.
Overall, the study indicates that combining satellite data, numerical modeling, and statistical correction techniques can enhance wave forecasts in data-sparse regions. These insights are useful for maritime agencies, port managers, and policymakers in Iran and the Persian Gulf, and underline the importance of improving observational networks and early warning systems.
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Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 30 June 2026

  • Receive Date 19 May 2026
  • Revise Date 29 June 2026
  • Accept Date 30 June 2026
  • Publish Date 30 June 2026