Nivar

Nivar

Decoding the Direction and Magnitude of Wind Speed Trends Using Multiple Statistical Approaches

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
Hedieh Ahmadpari 1
Vitaly Khaustov 2
Hamed Abasalinezhad 3
1 PhD candidate, Hydrology of land, water resources, hydrochemistry, Department of Engineering Hydrology, Institute of Hydrology and Oceanology, Russian State Hydrometeorological University
2 Candidate of Technical Sciences, Associate Professor, Department of Engineering Hydrology, Institute of Hydrology and Oceanology, Russian State Hydrometeorological University
3 MeteoroloResponsible for agricultural meteorology of West Azarbaijan provincegist
10.30467/nivar.2026.557484.1358
Abstract
Analyzing wind speed trends provides valuable insights into regional climate dynamics, atmospheric circulation changes, and their impacts on environmental and energy systems. This study investigates the temporal trends of monthly and annual wind speed in the Darreh Dozdan River basin, located in Lorestan Province, Iran, using a 25-year dataset (1998–2022) from the Kuhdasht synoptic station. Both parametric (linear regression and Pearson correlation coefficient) and nonparametric (Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator) methods were applied to detect and quantify wind speed trends. The Mann–Kendall test showed that all months had positive and statistically significant Z values greater than +1.96, confirming a persistent upward trend in wind speed. The strongest increases occurred in June, August, and September (Z = 4.27–4.86), reflecting intensified wind activity during the warmer months. The Sen’s slope and linear regression analyses revealed the largest increases in wind speed during February (0.12 m/s per year) and March (0.14 m/s per year), indicating that wind speeds rose most rapidly in late winter and early spring, while the annual results from both methods confirmed a steady increase in average wind speed of 0.08 m/s per year. Pearson correlation coefficients showed significant positive relationships (r > 0.6 for all months), with the strongest correlations in June, August, and September (r > 0.8), confirming a highly consistent and stable upward trend during these months. All four analytical methods converged on the conclusion that wind speed had increased in a statistically significant and persistent manner, differing only in which months exhibited the steepest or most stable growth, thereby providing a comprehensive and robust confirmation of wind intensification in the Darreh Dozdan River basin. These findings highlight the importance of accounting for increasing wind intensity in future regional climate assessments, water resource management, and land-use planning within the basin.
Keywords
Wind speed trend, Mann&‌‌‌ndash
Kendall test, Sen&‌‌‌rsquo
s slope estimator, Pearson correlation, Linear regression
Subjects
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  • Receive Date 04 November 2025
  • Revise Date 06 June 2026
  • Accept Date 10 June 2026
  • Publish Date 21 March 2026