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Forecasting future temperature and precipitation under the effects of climate change using the LARS-WG climate generator (Case Study: South Zagros Region of Iran(

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
Hassan Mohammadi 1
Reza Khalili 2
Sajad Mohammadi 3
1 Responsible author, Master of Civil Engineering - Water Resources Management Engineering (part of the National Association for the Support of Elites), Yasouj University, Yasouj, Iran.
2 Master of Civil Engineering, Water Resources Management Engineering, Yasouj University, Kohgiluyeh and Boyer Ahmad, Iran
3 Civil Engineering Expert, Civil Engineering, Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari, Iran.
10.30467/nivar.2022.319565.1209
Abstract
Predicting changes in meteorological variables in the long run is of great importance in the study of climate change. The aim of this study is to provide a perspective of temperature and precipitation changes in the western and southwestern regions of Iran using climate-generating radiation induction scenarios LARS-WG and display the results in GIS environment so that in the coming decades macro-planners In order to adopt compatible methods and reduce the consequences of global warming. For this purpose, daily precipitation, maximum temperature, minimum temperature and sunny hours of 34 meteorological stations were studied. The climate of these stations was determined based on the Domartan classification method. LARS-WG statistical exponential model for analyzing historical data on daily rainfall, solar radiation, and daily maximum and minimum temperatures at the stations under study and to simulate future meteorological data were utilized with considering RCP4.5 and RCP8 climate scenarios. The results showed that the model can simulate with high accuracy. The 1980-2018 statistical period was compared with the 2018-2038 statistical period under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios; the results for the stations under study showed a general process of increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation.
Keywords
"Precipitation"
"Climate change"
"South Zagros"
"Temperature"
"RCP"
"LARS-WG"

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Nivar
Volume 45, 114-115 - Serial Number 114
September 2021
Pages 152-169

  • Receive Date 13 December 2021
  • Revise Date 08 February 2022
  • Accept Date 13 March 2022
  • Publish Date 23 September 2021