Nivar

Nivar

Detecting climate changes during the past half century in some number of synoptic stations in Iran

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
Maryam Nazari 1
Abolfazl Mosaedi 2
Mohammad Ghabaei Sough 3
1 Ph.D. Candidate, Department of Water Science and Engineering, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Iran.
2 Professor of Hydrology and Water Resources Eng. Water Science and Engineering Department Agriculture Faculty Ferdowsi University of Mashhad Mashhad Iran
3 Iran Water Resources Management Company, Tehran, , Iran
10.30467/nivar.2025.529236.1339
Abstract
In recent decades, climate change has emerged as a major environmental challenge worldwide, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions, such as Iran. This study aims to evaluate the climatic changes in the country over the past fifty years using four well-established climate classification methods, including De Martonne, Ivanov, Selyaninov, and Emberger. Climatic data from 36 synoptic stations were analyzed over two periods: the previous period (1972–1996) and the recent period (1997–2021), to identify to identify possible changes in the climate type of different regions of the country. The results indicate that in most stations, the climate situation has changed towards drier and warmer conditions, along with increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation. These changes were particularly evident in cities such as Torbat Heydarieh, Mashhad, Gorgan, Sanandaj, and Fasa, and were consistently confirmed by analyses using four well-established climate classification methods. Furthermore, in stations in humid areas such as Babolsar, Ramsar, and Bandar Anzali, the results indicate a decreasing trend in ambient humidity. The change in climate type from semi-arid to arid and even temperate desert in some stations indicates the expansion of the area of arid and desert areas in the country.The findings of this study also show that Iran is increasingly exposed to climate warming and drought. Given these results, a fundamental review of water resources management plans and agricultural patterns is necessary to reduce the country's vulnerability to climate change and adapt to climate change.
Keywords
Climate Change
Temperature increasing
Precipitation decreasing
Iran
Subjects
1.    Sadr, A., Rahimi, D., Amiri, H., & Zand, M. (2024). The effect of climate change on groundwater resources in the Cham Anjir watershed. Spatial Planning, 14(4), 53–80. https://doi.org/10.22108/sppl.2024.141550.1790 (In Persian)
2.    Omidvar, K., Taei, N., & Mohammadi Ravari, F. (2025). Detection of temporal–spatial changes in autumn precipitation in Iran based on long-term statistics and nonparametric tests. Nivar, 49(128–129), 1–18. https://doi.org/10.30467/nivar.2024.471556.1301 (In Persian)
3.    Baazem, Z., Nasirian, A., Shafiei, Sh., & Behrouzian, M. (2016). Investigation of climate change effects on groundwater resources in Iran. In 4th National Conference on Applied Research in Civil Engineering, Architecture, and Urban Management (Tehran). https://civilica.com/doc/612037 (In Persian)
4.    Doostan, R. (2019). An analysis of precipitation changes in Iran. In 6th Regional Conference on Climate Change (Tehran). https://civilica.com/doc/1002836 [In Persian]
5.    Ministry of Energy & Plan and Budget Organization of Iran. (2024). Design guidelines for urban and rural water transfer and distribution systems, Code No. 117, 2nd revision (2024/03/19). Tehran: Ministry of Energy. (In Persian)
6.    Raeisi Nafchi, A., & Soltani Mohammadi, A. (2016). Analysis of temporal changes in rainfall and mean, minimum, and maximum temperature (Case study: Shahrekord station). Nivar, 40(94–95), 69–80. https://doi.org/10.30467/nivar.2016.42661 (In Persian)
7.    Roumi, F. (2022). Climate change and its implications for Iran’s national security. Political and International Approaches, 14(1), 203–228. (In Persian)
8.    Salari, A., Tavakkol Sadr Abadi, M., Zarei, A., & Bahrami, M. (2015). Evaluation of climatic indices and overall trends of climate change: A case study of Shiraz synoptic station. Iranian Journal of Irrigation and Water Engineering, 6(2), 138–150. (In Persian)
9.    Soltani Eidghameshi, A., & Shahandeh, R. (2024). Long-term assessment of temperature and precipitation changes in 22 Iranian cities over six decades (1958–2017). https://civilica.com/doc/2268019 (In Persian)
10.    Sadeghi, H., Mohammadi, H., Shamsipour, A. A., & Karimi, M. (2023). Climatic zoning of the southern coastal strip of the Caspian Sea using multivariate statistical methods. Geography and Environmental Planning, 34(2), 55–74. https://doi.org/10.22108/gep.2022.127922.1409 (In Persian)
11.    Alizadeh Choobari, O., & Najafi, M. S. (2017). Trends of air temperature and precipitation changes in different regions of Iran. Journal of Earth and Space Physics, 43(3), 569–584. https://doi.org/10.22059/jesphys.2017.60300 (In Persian)
12.    Farkhzadeh, B., Choobe, S., & Imani, R. (2025). Assessment of the impact of climate change on drought characteristics and trivariate return period risk in western Iran. Ecohydrology Journal, 12(1), 635–656. (In Persian)
13.    Ghochanian, M., Ansari, H., & Mosaedi, A. (2024). Analysis of climatic trends in Neyshabur plain based on temperature and precipitation extremes indices (1992–2021). Nivar, 48(124–125), 163–186. https://doi.org/10.30467/nivar.2024.446447.1284 (In Persian)
14.    Mianabadi, A., & Davari, K. (2023). Investigation of changes in precipitation and temperature amounts and distributions in Iran and their effects on extreme events. Journal of Water and Sustainable Development, 10(2), 13–26. https://doi.org/10.22067/jwsd.v10i2.2301-1203 (In Persian)
15.    Nazari Tehrudi, M., Ahmadi, F., & Khalili, K. (2017). Investigation of rainfall trend and trend change time in Lake Urmia watershed. https://civilica.com/doc/721995 (In Persian)
16.    Abtew, W., & Melesse, A. (2012). Evaporation and evapotranspiration: measurements and estimations. Springer Science & Business Media.
17.    AghaKouchak, A., Norouzi, H., Madani, K., Mirchi, A., Azarderakhsh, M., Nazemi, A., ... & Hasanzadeh, E. (2015). Aral Sea syndrome desiccates Lake Urmia: call for action. Journal of Great Lakes Research, 41(1), 307-311.
18.    Allahverdipour, P., Ghorbani, M. A., & Asadi, E. (2024). Evaluating the effects of climate change on the climatic classification in Iran. Water and Soil Management and Modelling, 4(3), 95-112.
19.    Bahmani, S., Salimi, H., & Sanikhani, H. (2021). Spatiotemporal analysis of aridity indices by using the nonparametric methods (case study: Sirvan river basin, Kurdistan Province, Iran). Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 14, 1-13. 
20.    Bayatavrkeshi, M., Imteaz, M. A., Kisi, O., Farahani, M., Ghabaei, M., Al-Janabi, A. M. S., ... & Yaseen, Z. M. (2023). Drought trends projection under future climate change scenarios for Iran region. Plos one, 18(11), e0290698.
21.    Chernykh, D., Rakhymbek, K., Biryukov, R., Bondarovich, A., Lubenets, L., & Baiburin, Y. (2025). The Calculation and Mapping of the Moisture Indices of the East Kazakhstan Region for the Preventive Assessment of the Climate–Hydrological Background. Climate, 13(7), 142.
22.    De Martonne, E. (1926). Les Alpes: Géographie générale. Paris: Armand Colin.
23.    Elsaidy, A., Yimer, E. A., Mogheir, Y., Huysmans, M., Villani, L., & van Griensven, A. (2025). Groundwater drought and anthropogenic amplifiers: A review of assessment and response strategies in arid and semi-arid areas. Science of The Total Environment, 179406. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.179406
24.    Fathi, T. A., Shafizadeh, M. H., & Kouchakzadeh, M. (2022). Spatial-temporal analysis of Iran's climatic classification based on Domarten method and Mann-Kendall test in the statistical period of 1995-2019.
25.    Ghazi, B., Salehi, H., Cheshami, M., Zeydalinejad, N., & Linh, N. T. T. (2025). Projection of climate change impact on main climate variables and assessment of the future of Köppen–Geiger climate classification in Iran. Acta Geophysica, 73(2), 2017-2027.
26.    Gu, L., Chen, J., Yin, J., Slater, L. J., Wang, H. M., Guo, Q., ... & Zhao, T. (2022). Global increases in compound flood‐hot extreme hazards under climate warming. Geophysical Research Letters, 49(8), e2022GL097726.
27.    Gudko, V., Usatov, A., Minkina, T., Azarin, K., Tarigholizadeh, S., Sushkova, S., & Kravchenko, E. (2024). Spatiotemporal shifts in humidification zones: assessing climate impact on bioclimatic landscapes. International Journal of Biometeorology, 68(12), 2565-2578.
28.    IPCC. (2023). Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/
29.    Ivanov, N. N. (1954). Transpiration and Water Regime of Plants. Moscow: Academy of Sciences of the USSR.
30.    Jahangir, M. H., & Danehkar, S. (2022). A comparative drought assessment in Gilan, Iran using Pálfai drought index, de Martonne aridity index, and Pinna combinative index. Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 15(1), 90. 
31.    Karimi, V., Karami, E., & Keshavarz, M. (2018). Climate change and agriculture: Impacts and adaptive responses in Iran. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 17(1), 1-15. 
32.    Mahdavi, P., Kharazi, H. G., Eslami, H., Zohrabi, N., & Razaz, M. (2021). Drought occurrence under future climate change scenarios in the Zard River basin, Iran. Water Supply, 21(2), 899-917.
33.    Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., ... & Zhou, B. (2021). Climate change 2021: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the sixth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, 2(1), 2391.
34.    Minaei, M., & Irannezhad, M. (2018). Spatio-temporal trend analysis of precipitation, temperature, and river discharge in the northeast of Iran in recent decades. Theoretical and applied climatology, 131, 167-179.
35.    Mustafayev, Z., Medeu, A., Skorintseva, I., Bassova, T., & Aldazhanova, G. (2024). Improvement of the methodology for the assessment of the agro-resource potential of agricultural landscapes. Sustainability, 16(1), 419.
36.    Naderi, M., Saatsaz, M., & Behrouj Peely, A. (2024). Extreme climate events under global warming in Iran. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 69(3), 337-364.
37.    NCCO (National Center for Climate Observations). (2024). Annual Climate Report for Iran. Tehran: NCCO Publications.
38.    Rouzkhosh, M., Jaafarzadeh Haghighifard, N., Varshosaz, K., Orak, N., & Dashti, S. (2022). Changes in Climate Indices (Ivanov, Barat, and Emberger) Due to Greenhouse Gas Emissions From Gas Flares In Ahvaz Oil Field (2008-2018). Archives of Hygiene Sciences, 11(2), 163-174. 
39.    UNEP (United Nations Environment Programme). (2023). Global Environmental Outlook.
40.    WMO (World Meteorological Organization). (2023). State of the Global Climate 2022. Geneva: WMO.
41.    Zhou, S., Yu, B., & Zhang, Y. (2023). Global concurrent climate extremes exacerbated by anthropogenic climate change. Science Advances, 9(10), eabo1638.

  • Receive Date 08 June 2025
  • Revise Date 22 September 2025
  • Accept Date 19 October 2025
  • Publish Date 21 March 2026