Nivar

Nivar

Analysis of Temporal and Spatial Changes in Extreme Precipitation in the Urmia Lake area During the Last Decade

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
Amin Arabloie Moghaddam 1
َAli Akbar Rasouli Pirouzian 2
Karim Amini Nia 3
1 Department of Meteorology, Mara.C., Islamic Azad University, Marand, Iran
2 School of Geosciences, Macquarie university Sydney, Australia..
3 Department of Geography, Ah.C., Islamic Azad University, Ahar , Iran
10.30467/nivar.2025.543532.1353
Abstract
Analyzing the spatiotemporal variations of extreme precipitation is of great importance for enhancing the resilience of socio-ecological systems and their associated infrastructure. This is due to the impacts of climate change and the potential increase in heavy rainfall events, droughts, and summer storms. Therefore, this study investigates the temporal and spatial changes in extreme precipitation (exceeding 10 mm and 20 mm) at meteorological stations within the Lake Urmia basin over the recent decade (2015–2024).
For this purpose, the temporal variations of precipitation series at 17 meteorological stations around Lake Urmia were first examined statistically and graphically using the Modified Mann-Kendall test, Sen’s Slope Estimator, and regression slope analysis. Subsequently, based on the findings from the previous stages, spatial statistics were generalized and visualized for the counties surrounding Lake Urmia.
The spatial distribution of extreme precipitation revealed that over the past decade, the highest frequency of such events occurred in the southwest of Lake Urmia, specifically in the counties of Oshnavieh, Piranshahr, and Mahabad. In contrast, the results indicated the lowest frequency of extreme precipitation in the eastern and northeastern parts of the lake, including the counties of Shabestar, Tabriz, Sahand, Azarshahr, and Ajabshir.
The final time series results also showed an increasing trend in extreme precipitation at most of the studied stations. The most significant changes, based on the Mann-Kendall statistic and Sen’s slope, were observed at the Malkan and Oshnavieh stations, with Sen’s slopes of 0.44 and 0.33, respectively.
Overall, based on the spatial distribution, the variations in extreme precipitation within the Lake Urmia basin can be classified into three general categories: significant increasing trend (south and southwest of the lake), non-significant increasing trend (north and southeast of the lake), and non-significant decreasing trend (east of the lake).
Keywords
Extreme precipitation
Urmia Lake area
Mann-Kendall and Sen&‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌‌rsquo
s Slope Tests
Subjects
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  • Receive Date 30 August 2025
  • Revise Date 28 September 2025
  • Accept Date 04 October 2025
  • Publish Date 21 March 2026