Nivar

Nivar

Study of precipitation trends in the eastern half of the Iran using ETCCDI indices and the impact of temperature on RX1day

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
behnoosh afroogh 1
Iman Babaeian 2
Abbas Mofidi 3
1 Department of Geography, Faculty of Letters and Humanities, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad
2 . Assistant Professor of Climatology, Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences Research Institute, Climatology Research Institute, Mashhad..
3 Associate Professor, Department of Geography, Climate and Meteorology, Ali Shariati Faculty of Humanities and Literature, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad.
10.30467/nivar.2025.513157.1329
Abstract
Nowadays, extreme climatic events, including extreme precipitation, have increased as a result of climate change. Due to the severe damages and losses they cause, studying these events has become increasingly important. The main objective of this research is to examine the trends and changes in extreme precipitation at 13 synoptic stations located in the eastern part of Iran during the period of 1977-2024 and to assess the impact of temperature on the maximum Rx1day precipitation. For this purpose, daily precipitation and temperature data from selected synoptic stations were obtained from the IR of Iranian Meteorological Organization (IRIMO). Using the RclimDex software, 11 extreme precipitation indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) were analyzed. Additionally, the effect of Global Warming in regional scale on the maximum 24-hour precipitation (RX1day) was determined based on the Clausius-Clapeyron equation. The analysis was conducted in two phases: First, the trends and significance of the 11 indices for the entire period were examined. Then, to detect changes during the recent period (2001-2024), each of the indices from this period was compared with the base period (1977-2000). The results showed an overall decreasing trend in all indices except for the Consecutive Dry Days (CDD). Despite the decreasing trends, the average of the extreme indices during the recent normal period increased compared to the base period in all indices except for annual total precipitation (PRCPTOT) and consecutive wet days (CWD). According to the Clausius-Clapeyron equation, for every one degree Celsius increase in temperature, the threshold for extreme precipitation increases by approximately 7%, and in eastern Iran, this increase was estimated at 1.2% for the maximum one-day precipitation (Rx1day). However, considering the heavy rainfall of spring 2024 (not part of the current study period), this increase was estimated at 14.1%. Regardless of the level of significance, most stations showed a decreasing trend in extreme indices, but the absolute maximum value in the recent normal period increased compared to the base normal period. The findings of this research can be utilized for long-term planning in areas such as climate adaptation, water resources management, agriculture, and disaster risk management related to weather and climate.
Keywords
: Climate change
extreme events
Clausius-Clapeyron equation
Eastern Iran
RclimDex
Subjects
 
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  • Receive Date 18 March 2025
  • Revise Date 28 July 2025
  • Accept Date 09 September 2025
  • Publish Date 23 September 2025