نویسندگان
1 دانشجوی دکتری علوم و مهندسی آب – هواشناسی کشاورزی ، دانشگاه تهران
2 دانشجوی دکتری آب و هواشناسی ، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی، مدیر کل هواشناسی استان زنجان
3 کارشناس هواشناسی اداره کل هواشناسی استان زنجان
چکیده
کلیدواژه‌ها
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
This study was conducted in order to assess the probable effect of climate change on the trend in the maximum extent of temperature variations in three scales including the point (synoptic stations) ,zonal (included 10 geographical areas in Iran) ,and national average scales. This study, the trend in the maximum extent of temperature variations of the baseline climatic period (1986-2005) was investigated against three future climatic projections, and also three future climatic projections, future climatic projections (near, middle, and far) until the end of the 21st century.This study has taken advantage of the downscaled outputs of the CNRM-CM5 global model from the set of CMIP5 models under the RCP scenarios. The results showed, while under the future climatic projections (near, middle, and far), this parameter was 0.7, 1.2, 1.9 oC for the RCP4.5 scenario and 0.7, 1.7, and 3.9 oC for the RCP8.5 scenario, respectively,which probably will experience an increase compared with the baseline period.The highest rate of increase in the maximum extent of temperature of the future climatic projections compared with the baseline climatic period occurred in the Zagros region, and the lowest rate of increase was in the Khazar region.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
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